dang yall the 2020 presidential debates could be crazy

[Hillbilly Jim]

trump
mark cuban independent
akon independent
john mcafee libertarian
jesse ventura green










some corporate cuck democrat http://www.skatzpoker.org/forums/images/icons/icon13.gif

[blake]

i was really hoping the rock would get into it but alas

[blake]

yep, alas

[blake]

of course, when talking about the rock's 2020 chances, vaughn said "the american people wouldn't get fooled again"

he refused to elaborate

[VaughnP]

I think you're mixing things up. This is the only thing I mentioned about the Rock I'm pretty sure.

If you reread the thread, you'll see that it was actually you who brought Trump into the conversation by assuming that any criticism of Obama = support of Trump. The only thing I said Trump related is that I think someone who has lead a billion dollar organization for decades is more qualified to lead the country than someone who excelled in academia. I'm not a Trump supporter like you're thinking, I just think the whole Obama thing was the biggest scam of my lifetime. His qualifications would be about the same in terms of what it takes to be a leader as president The Rock's will be in 2028.

[Hillbilly Jim]

calm down vaughn this thread is about kopmala or corporate cory getting owned by a bunch of crazy white people and akon

[VaughnP]

Kopmala not being descended from American slaves and instead revealed as being of full on Jamaican whip cracker ancestry is the funniest thing in weeks.

[Hillbilly Jim]

yeah brah, black people were talking about that a long time ago

[blake]

I think you're mixing things up. This is the only thing I mentioned about the Rock I'm pretty sure.

yes i was making a joke vaughn

[blake]

as we all know, the best jokes are the ones you have to explain.

[Hillbilly Jim]

https://kulturehub.com/app/uploads/2018/11/akon-president-kulture-hub-570x300.jpg

i hope akons first pick for the supreme court is michelle obama

[Hillbilly Jim]

then break out some david stern classics as the republicans lose their shit

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1212916/sternlol.gif
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2851807/sterntrollin_medium.gif

[VaughnP]

as we all know, the best jokes are the ones you have to explain.

Terrible.


You do realize that the sad state of American politics makes the Rock being president by the 2036 election about even money, right?

All it takes is expanding the cult of personality techniques he was the best at in wrestling.

Someone post the Eric Bischoff TED Talk video.

[Hillbilly Jim]

akon/t pain 2020
but only if t pain uses autotune for all his speeches

[Behemoth]

Oprah for Pres
Rock for VP

[Behemoth]

and WE ALL GET A CAR!!

[Behemoth]

how much would that ticket win by Vaughn?

[VaughnP]

Oprah would never run. She has too many weird skeletons in her closet. Her brand would be hurt by it.


Biden is apparently in now. He is the only candidate with a legitimate shot at beating Trump, but as long as Trump's approval rating is anywhere above 39.9% he is a virtual lock. Anywhere around 45% and it's a borrow if you have to type of lock. Biden also has the whole creepy pedo thing that's spread around social media by the young folks. It's obviously not a good look when there are dozens of videos and pics of him weirdly groping children, some to the point that adults have to intervene. It will be strange to see how that plays out on a bigger scale if he really is in.

[Behemoth]

Oprah would never run. She has too many weird skeletons in her closet. Her brand would be hurt by it.


Biden is apparently in now. He is the only candidate with a legitimate shot at beating Trump, but as long as Trump's approval rating is anywhere above 39.9% he is a virtual lock. Anywhere around 45% and it's a borrow if you have to type of lock. Biden also has the whole creepy pedo thing that's spread around social media by the young folks. It's obviously not a good look when there are dozens of videos and pics of him weirdly groping children, some to the point that adults have to intervene. It will be strange to see how that plays out on a bigger scale if he really is in.


Vaughn, you seem like a fairly smart guy, but now you're telling me old man Biden has a shot? Cmon dawg.

[Behemoth]

Sometimes I just shake my head at you Vaughn

[Behemoth]

SMH

[Behemoth]

Howard Schultz 6000-1 is a good bet

[Behemoth]

https://www.oddsshark.com/other/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures

[Behemoth]

not even if he shoe polished his face and changed his name to Joe Budden, would Biden have a shot

[VaughnP]

Biden is still the Dem favorite on the books and hasn't officially entered the race.

[Behemoth]

Biden is still the Dem favorite on the books and hasn't officially entered the race.


They love Bernie more, but I think its gonna be a left field guy

[VaughnP]

+700. That's honestly not a bad bet. Trump is roughly +160 which is definitely +EV. Even with the biased polls, his combined approval rating is around 42%. This is still with the effects of the shutdown. Trump should be somewhere around -250.

[Behemoth]

if I could find a place to put money on Schultz at long odds, I'd do it.

[Behemoth]

we may see people actually embrace the third party this time around.

[VaughnP]

Honestly that is the issue. Some far left loon wins the primary only to get crushed by Trump. Biden is the one guy with centrist appeal that could sweep the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota edge of Trump's making it basically impossible for Trump to win.

[Behemoth]

I just don't think anyone gives a fuck about Biden. He's like 80 and he lost his chance.

[VaughnP]

I don't know if he can win the primary, but try to come up with another realistic dem candidate with a better shot at beating Trump. There isn't one. Bernie will probably end up winning the primary but would likely fare the worst in the general election of any candidate.

[VaughnP]

So Beto is apparently officially in. This is one of those threw up in my mouth a little type of moments. I feel like people who are excited about him outside of Texas didn't actually follow his failed senate campaign. He came across as an extremely fake/phony even douchier version of a Kennedy wannabe that's actually more like John Kerry, with pretty much no real platform. Cruz was extremely beatable. If the Dems want to win they need someone like him to run as a true deep pocket independent, not fracture the primary.

[Hillbilly Jim]

If the Dems want to win they need someone like him to run as a true deep pocket independent, not fracture the primary.

https://media.giphy.com/media/EBJit0vQ6BAJi/giphy.gif

[Behemoth]

I'm going 3rd party, Schultz for the longshot son.

[Behemoth]

Real talk though, let's roll this shit back to Hillary running, and Bill coming in as her VP. How much does she crush Trump by?

[VaughnP]

Trump when asked about Beto entering the race: "He has a lot of hand movement. Is he crazy or is that just the way he acts?”

Pretty much my exact thoughts.

:lmao

[anatine]

are we going to sit here and ignore that post where vaughn said he and trump think alike?

[Bobby Wong]

well it's true, trump also thinks mexicans stole his goats

[Hillbilly Jim]

aaaaaaaaaaaaand cory booker has caused rosario dawson to be canceled

[blake]

+700. That's honestly not a bad bet. Trump is roughly +160 which is definitely +EV. Even with the biased polls, his combined approval rating is around 42%. This is still with the effects of the shutdown. Trump should be somewhere around -250.

how are you not loading up on trump then?

[blake]

I don't know if he can win the primary, but try to come up with another realistic dem candidate with a better shot at beating Trump. There isn't one. Bernie will probably end up winning the primary but would likely fare the worst in the general election of any candidate.

the democrats have gone full socialist, but i think you're projecting the way you personally think about trump on the rest of the country.

there's a reason trump is an underdog to win re-election and it's not biased polling. it's reasonable to believe trump will not be able to expand his base beyond what he did in 2016. it's because he acts like he's actually retarded.

it's also reasonable to think that the democrats turn out for anyone not named hillary in 2020.

those two factors alone make trump extremely vulnerable

[Hillbilly Jim]

considering over half america likes medicare for all, taxing the rich etc. sounds like the whole country is shifting left they are just too stupid to know it

[VaughnP]

the democrats have gone full socialist, but i think you're projecting the way you personally think about trump on the rest of the country.

there's a reason trump is an underdog to win re-election and it's not biased polling. it's reasonable to believe trump will not be able to expand his base beyond what he did in 2016. it's because he acts like he's actually retarded.

it's also reasonable to think that the democrats turn out for anyone not named hillary in 2020.

those two factors alone make trump extremely vulnerable

I'm not using my opinions or feelings for anything here. There are various studies that show just 40% makes an incumbent the favorite, mid 40s a virtual lock. I wasn't pulling those numbers out of my ass.

You are actually applying your own biases and wishful thinking. Trump's rating will likely improve once the Mueller thing is over and if the economy holds steady.

Research from Young and Chris Jackson, a vice president at the polling outfit, has shown that an approval rating of 40 percent would make Trump the narrow favorite for re-election. The two studied more than 500 elections to reach that conclusion. In 2015, Young's model predicted a Republican victory in the 2016 presidential race despite polling that gave Democrat Hillary Clinton the edge.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/trump-approval-low-but-steady-possible-good-sign-for-2020-re-election.html


Google this and you'll find other election analysts that have came to the same mathematical conclusion.

I remember seeing that 42% in a combined poll of polls or so makes him at least a 70% favorite by this formula, while at the time the more accurate polls had him even higher.

[anatine]

I'm not using my opinions or feelings for anything here. There are various studies that show just 40% makes an incumbent the favorite, mid 40s a virtual lock. I wasn't pulling those numbers out of my ass.

You are actually applying your own biases and wishful thinking. Trump's rating will likely improve once the Mueller thing is over and if the economy holds steady.



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/trump-approval-low-but-steady-possible-good-sign-for-2020-re-election.html


Google this and you'll find other election analysts that have came to the same mathematical conclusion.

I remember seeing that 42% in a combined poll of polls or so makes him at least a 70% favorite by this formula, while at the time the more accurate polls had him even higher.



there are some legit fascinating stats here but one thing jumped out at me; using 500 similar elections as a data pool seems tricky because there werent 500 elections where russian troll farms got a sundowning reality tv star elected.



https://i.imgur.com/aJ3gG90.gif

[VaughnP]

California and the North East are severely out of touch with the rest of America. Don't be surprised if even more white people turn out for Trump in 2020 if he is the candidate. From what I can tell, despite what CNN and co are telling you, his base is even more fed up. It will be hard to embolden the youth and the black vote anymore than the insanity of 2016 against him. The early and mid 20s crowd that drove all of that energy is getting over it more and more with each passing day, and the average middle aged moderate agrees more that the media etc. actually is more biased than we all even thought. If the Mueller thing turns out to be as big of a letdown as it appears to be for his critics and opponents, that's all the Republicans need to crush 2020.

[anatine]

point well taken.

[VaughnP]

That post wasn't meant to be a response to yours. I actually didn't see it until afterwards.

[VaughnP]

I'm just saying that Blake has Nita casting Santeria spells against Trump with his derangement syndrome at this point.

[VaughnP]

I don't see how Beto's literally psycho/sociopathic writings uncovered don't death blow his chances. Everything about him becomes that much more creepy and fake when you understand he was writing children murder stories and weird as fuck poems in his high school years.

[blake]

California and the North East are severely out of touch with the rest of America. Don't be surprised if even more white people turn out for Trump in 2020 if he is the candidate. From what I can tell, despite what CNN and co are telling you, his base is even more fed up. It will be hard to embolden the youth and the black vote anymore than the insanity of 2016 against him. The early and mid 20s crowd that drove all of that energy is getting over it more and more with each passing day, and the average middle aged moderate agrees more that the media etc. actually is more biased than we all even thought. If the Mueller thing turns out to be as big of a letdown as it appears to be for his critics and opponents, that's all the Republicans need to crush 2020.

oh i totally agree that people on the coasts (and by that i mean educated) see things way different from people in flyover country.

but where are you getting this one... "It will be hard to embolden the youth and the black vote anymore than the insanity of 2016 against him. The early and mid 20s crowd that drove all of that energy is getting over it more and more with each passing day"

huh? youths and minorities didn't come out in 2016. and you think they're less emboldened than before? especially when we're likely to see a minority candidate? hmmm. you think the socialism talk is likely to make them less passionate? ok.

to be honest, i'm less optimistic that a dem will win the general than i was before. i'd still like to bet it with you though

[blake]

I don't see how Beto's literally psycho/sociopathic writings uncovered don't death blow his chances. Everything about him becomes that much more creepy and fake when you understand he was writing children murder stories and weird as fuck poems in his high school years.

Don't know much about him, but how are we in a world where you still think "things are disqualifying."

I get it. You love trump.

But if you don't see how LITERALLY EVERYTHING HAS HE EVER DONE OR SAID would have been "disqualifying" just 10 years ago, you're blinded. Hopelessly.

There is no more "disqualifying." Americans are unblievably stupid.

[VaughnP]

Blake, I don't know how you're not understanding that I routinely spend time with the people I'm talking about in multiple cities and multiple states. My girlfriend is an ardent "never Trumper". I have been routinely exposed to the thoughts and opinions of people who actually attended these protests and rallies. Every type of late teen and twenty something from dirt poor to extremely wealthy. They simply don't care as much about Trump anymore, and Kopmala isn't going to inspire them. I like how you completely dodged the math based analysis of why Trump at 42% approval is still the election favorite too.

[blake]

You are actually applying your own biases and wishful thinking. Trump's rating will likely improve once the Mueller thing is over and if the economy holds steady.

totally disagree re mueller.

in all seriousness, trump can admit he was colluding with russia and he would literally not lose even one vote. i don't even think one trump voter would stay home because of it.

and all the people that would be outraged are also already voting against him.

[blake]

Blake, I don't know how you're not understanding that I routinely spend time with the people I'm talking about in multiple cities and multiple states. My girlfriend is an ardent "never Trumper". I have been routinely exposed to the thoughts and opinions of people who actually attended these protests and rallies. Every type of late teen and twenty something from dirt poor to extremely wealthy. They simply don't care as much about Trump anymore, and Kopmala isn't going to inspire them. I like how you completely dodged the math based analysis of why Trump at 42% approval is still the election favorite too.

my bad, i didn't realize you were so well versed on the topic.

are you listening to yourself?

i didn't google your 42% number so i have no idea if you're right or wrong. care to bet?

[VaughnP]

This is what Trump derangement syndrome looks like potentially one lady and gentlemen. Jesus.

[blake]

so no bet then?

[VaughnP]

Bet on what exactly?

[blake]

that trump does not win the 2020 election

[VaughnP]

I mean what odds and conditions? I don't exactly want to bet 20 months out, but absolutely will closer to the election. I still think the biggest chance of him not winning is if for whatever reason he doesn't actually run.

[blake]

I mean what odds and conditions? I don't exactly want to bet 20 months out, but absolutely will closer to the election. I still think the biggest chance of him not winning is if for whatever reason he doesn't actually run.

i was thinking straight up, which is prob a bad bet for you i guess.

of course, i was thinking i would hedge by betting a ton on trump with good odds on some online site.

don't ruin this for me vaughn. it's been a very trying draftkings season.

[VaughnP]

Obviously I wouldn't bet straight up when I can ship any amount in bitcoin to whatever reputable book and get as much as +180.

[blake]

and vaughn has to fuck up me freerolling him.

my god what a dick

[Hillbilly Jim]

i still cant believe booker blackmailed rosario dawson into being his beard

[Behemoth]

Vaughn throw $100 on Schultz. He has a better shot than what you may think.

[VaughnP]

How much more alpha is this turkey than Blake?

DCPwOKvwugc

[Behemoth]

I feel like Tommy's a solid 10x more alpha, but we should prolly ask Nita

[VaughnP]

Blake, how shook are you by the Politico article today where various leading academic election analysts are predicting a Trump landslide? The dude from Yale, who has been insanely accurate with a formula that includes various economic factors etc., said if it were today Trump would win by 294 electoral votes regardless of who's running against him by his method.

[blake]

Blake, how shook are you by the Politico article today where various leading academic election analysts are predicting a Trump landslide? The dude from Yale, who has been insanely accurate with a formula that includes various economic factors etc., said if it were today Trump would win by 294 electoral votes regardless of who's running against him by his method.

moderately shook if i'm being honest

[blake]

like 6.5/10 shook if i had to quantify it.

[gay sex]

hes 10/10 shook once we had that pig picture of his drivers license so stop worry about shook walter

[Hillbilly Jim]

bing was telling me that there is going to be a recession so that has to hurt his numbers

[blake]

i would be more shook but i think i've already mentally accepted that trump has an extremely good chance of winning.

i'm also beginning to think that -- except for bernie -- the democrats are so hopelessly fractured with identity politics that it's going to be tough to listen to them

tulsi is still my girl though

[gay sex]

heads up blake you sound like an absolute faggot

[blake]

:fin

[VaughnP]

Is this true? I would have skipped the Mexican joint just to see this had I known. Seems like dropping this news on a Friday night at the start of March Madness is intentional. Same thing with the leak of no more indictments.


1109309398113873921

[VaughnP]

1109292830894112772

[blake]

you’ll also enjoy seeing chris matthews’ reaction. he was pissed

[Behemoth]

Blake, how shook are you by the Politico article today where various leading academic election analysts are predicting a Trump landslide? The dude from Yale, who has been insanely accurate with a formula that includes various economic factors etc., said if it were today Trump would win by 294 electoral votes regardless of who's running against him by his method.

LOL so he'd win by 294 votes if Sanders ran or if Kirk Cameron ran? I'd feel like Sanders would get more votes than Kirky. I love those polls. Made up numbers to get to made up situations 2 years away. And that, folks, is why if you are still watching the news or wrapped up in politics, you are an idiot.

[Bobby Wong]

Yeah, nobody has won by that kind of margin since reagan and bush the elder. I don't care what kind of charts some yale rube is coming up with, there's no way trump is going to pull those old-timey cold war era numbers.

[gay sex]

i feel like wong was like 15 with flowing hair when reagen won again in 84 just out there rooting and tooting in the back of a pickup

[Bobby Wong]

bro, i was 8 and getting bullied by the republican kids at the bus stop. they were all, we're for reagan because star wars, and i thought that shit will never work and reagan declared ketchup a vegetable, are you all retarded. and then in 1985 when spies like us came out, i was like, you see how bullshit star wars is, they will fucking blow up your mtv.

raWZraPHLqM

[gay sex]

i love every part of that story

[VaughnP]

Obviously I was trying to shock and awe Blake. I don't believe 294, and I think that was the extreme scenario of 4 or something like that, all with Trump winning easily. If the economy holds and the Democrats continue to shit the bed and look mentally challenged while doing so, I do think it will be a landslide at this point after the Mueller thing. The Democrats are literally in the process of turning on him after he was painted as a silent hero of justice for two years. This is slowly drifting towards worst case scenario for them. Obama beat McCain by 192.

[Behemoth]

bro, i was 8 and getting bullied by the republican kids at the bus stop. they were all, we're for reagan because star wars, and i thought that shit will never work and reagan declared ketchup a vegetable, are you all retarded. and then in 1985 when spies like us came out, i was like, you see how bullshit star wars is, they will fucking blow up your mtv.


Reagan was one of the worst presidents we've ever had, hands down. Agree with that Wong?

[Bobby Wong]

Reagan was one of the worst presidents we've ever had, hands down. Agree with that Wong?

http://www.skatzpoker.org/forums/showthread.php?t=71318

[VaughnP]

1109665691236356097

[gay sex]

vaughn get this behemoth moron out also ronnie was the goat

[gay sex]

jimmy woods needs a twitch stream where he just rails against black people and cuck whites like blake

[Behemoth]

vaughn get this behemoth moron out also ronnie was the goat


:facepalm


The funniest thing about morons like you, is that you can't actually name anything he did that was good for society as a whole.

[Hillbilly Jim]

6lIqNjC1RKU

Ronald 6
Wilson 6
Reagan 6

[VaughnP]

We're like two months from Blake getting on the Trump train. Literally every time Trump tweeted. "NO OBSTRUCTION! NO COLLUSION!", which was like 700 times, he was right. Someone needs to be the adult in the libtard room and explain that continuing these petty congressional investigations and trying to 180 on Mueller who is infinitely more qualified and had unlimited resources to investigate Trump, is incredibly off putting to those in the center. This is heading towards disaster for them in 2020. Trump getting re-elected and winning back the house with nothing to lose is the entertainment we all need. It gets more and more likely every day.

[VaughnP]

Look at the selective headlines across mainstream media and Twitter's further misleading BS.


Twitter Moment Headline: Members of the Department of Justice met on Saturday and Sunday to review Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report on his investigation into possible Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Twitter Header: "Mueller report finds no obstruction but does not exonerate Trump, Justice Dept. says
Members of the Department of Justice met on Saturday and Sunday to review Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report on his investigation into possible Russian interference in the 2016 election."

Twitter What's Happening: - Attorney General William Barr released a four-page letter of “principal conclusions” on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.
- Barr’s letter says Mueller’s report doesn’t indicate President Trump committed a crime, but does not exonerate him.
- Mueller’s full report is still not public.
- The attorney general’s review “remains ongoing.”


Not once do they explain that exoneration isn't exactly possible, and they completely ignore the "no collusion" - the most important element - of the report.

[blake]

We're like two months from Blake getting on the Trump train. Literally every time Trump tweeted. "NO OBSTRUCTION! NO COLLUSION!", which was like 700 times, he was right. Someone needs to be the adult in the libtard room and explain that continuing these petty congressional investigations and trying to 180 on Mueller who is infinitely more qualified and had unlimited resources to investigate Trump, is incredibly off putting to those in the center. This is heading towards disaster for them in 2020. Trump getting re-elected and winning back the house with nothing to lose is the entertainment we all need. It gets more and more likely every day.

i won't be getting on the trump train cause i still think he's suffering from a personality disorder and possibly early onset dementia. (the way trump blurts out whatever comes to his mind reminds me of my dad, who's starting to slip.)

but i also hate the social justice platform of the modern democrat party. watching beto and biden apologize for their white priviliege is nauseating. is this what we're getting in 2020?

i always though trump would have re-election issues cause of his inability to expand his base, and i assumed the youth and minorities would turnout in 2020.

i still think that, but if the democrats keep biting on this gotcha stuff (like late term abortion, apologizing for white privilege), then fuck. trump might even expand his base.

[Behemoth]

Politics----"Even when you win you spin"

[Behemoth]

seriously fellas, can we get another hobby, like Battleship or maybe pogs? You're lives would be so much better if you could just put the pol-aid down.

[blake]

seriously fellas, can we get another hobby, like Battleship or maybe pogs? You're lives would be so much better if you could just put the pol-aid down.

:snicker
:lmao
:this

[Behemoth]

:snicker



I initially wrote "You're a bunch of dumb cunts" and then I changed it to be friendlier. My bad.

[Behemoth]

I initially wrote "You're a bunch of dumb cunts" and then I changed it to be friendlier. My bad.


:snicker

[VaughnP]

1111772525388881921

[VaughnP]

Cue Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody: "Is this the real life..."

1111979643337428992

:lmao

[Hillbilly Jim]

shout out to bernie and tulsi
https://i.imgur.com/T0f1Bg0.png

[Behemoth]

shout out to bernie and tulsi
https://i.imgur.com/T0f1Bg0.png



LOL Tulsi is left's version of Sarah Palin

[Behemoth]

neither one can win NEXT

[Hillbilly Jim]

get him blake

[Behemoth]

get him blake


Internet's down in DE right now Jim