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WickedChopsPoker 04-23-2011 04:21 AM

So How Long Till Regulation?
 
http://cdn.wickedchopspoker.com/wp-c...ltitabling.jpg It'll be a long time till you'll be doing this for real money in the States again...


There is no way around it: we’re not playing online poker for money in the United States (on a major operator) for a long time.

But how long?

We’ve read varying articles that suggest Black FridayTM could speed up regulatory legislation. We’ve also read that the criminal stains splattered on PokerStars, Full Tilt, and AP/UB will make lawmakers less likely to touch online poker.

However, one thing clear to us that is getting lost in the media story-telling shuffle: there is absolutely no connection between the indictments and any past or future efforts to get online poker regulated in the United States.

There are no conspiracies here. This isn’t part of some evil plan by Caesars or MGM to clear out the competition.

Yes, even hadSUCKINGHOBBITDICKSSenator Harry Reid pushed his bill through in December, the indictments last Friday still would’ve happened. PokerStars/Tilt/UB are alleged to have laundered money and committed bank fraud. The Reid BillTM wouldn’t have saved them from those indictments.

So yeah, the indictments and regulatory efforts happened/are happening completely independent of each other. One brick & mortar gaming executive we spoke to, after his team had discussions with Senators and Congressmen, echoed that sentiment, telling us that they “[don't] seem related.” And we have no reason to believe otherwise.

On that note, after speaking with a few industry insiders and gaming executives, here’s what we see as the most likely timetable scenarios towards regulation:

:: Scenario 1: Senator Harry Reid (and others) push Federal online poker regulation at the end of the 2012 session.

Why? Harry Reid still owes Nevada brick & mortars for getting him re-elected. He almost hitched online poker regulation onto legislation in the last out-going Congressional session in December 2010, and this would be his next chance.

If this happens, you’re still looking at a period of at least a year until proper regualtions are put in place and licenses are granted–so we’re at least three years away from any form of real money online poker in the U.S.

Scenario Probability: 50%

:: Scenario 2: D.C., California, Nevada (and others) push through intrastate bills, forcing the Fed to step in.

Why? Well, it’s already happening.

D.C. has legalized it. Iowa is approving a study to legalize it. Nevada has movement. California and New Jersey have made progress.

If multiple states push through regulation this year, it *may* force the Federal government to step in quicker. FederalSUCKINGHOBBITDICKSregulationSUCKINGHOBBITDI CKSis by far the preferred method of brick & mortar casinos, and Caesars/MGM will be all up in Harry Reid’s ear to make sure they don’t lose their edge to the Tribes or other entities.

In this scenario, which we’d consider the best-case, we’re still two years away though from actually playing real money games.

Scenario Probability: 25%

:: Scenario 3: Nothing is pushed through of note at the state or Federal level by end of 2012.

Why? Because if nothing happens at the intrastate level, and nothing happens at the end of the 2012 session, then we’re in for a long legislative process.

Obviously, this would be a worst case scenario, particularly if Republicans take control of the house.

As one industry insider told us, “…more republicans [doesn't] necessarily mean less gaming support; nannycrats are just as problematic,” which is true, except that online poker regulation will always have more support by Democrat committee heads, at least in the short-term.

Regardless, in this scenario, we’re looking at at least five years before we’re playing real money online poker in the U.S.

ScenarioSUCKINGHOBBITDICKSProbability: 25%

It’s not all bad news. Clearly brick & mortar lobbying efforts have stepped up in favor of online poker regulation over the past couple of years. And if the PPA ever gets their messaging on point and focuses on the financial benefits (as opposed to the personal freedom argument) of regulation, then they’ve at least shown they can mobilize constituents online to send letters to their elected officials.

But make no mistake about it, we’re years away from playing Federally regulated online poker in the U.S. So dig in, it’s gonna to be a long night.

Related Posts

  1. http://cdn.wickedchopspoker.com/images/wcp-icon.jpg <div class="title"> Online Poker Regulation: So Now What? </span>
  2. http://cdn.wickedchopspoker.com/images/wcp-icon.jpg <div class="title"> Senator Harry Reid Online Poker Regulation Plan Details </span>
  3. http://cdn.wickedchopspoker.com/wp-c...-1.jpg <div class="title"> How We’d Shape The Online Poker Regulation Debate </span>
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CardPlayer 04-23-2011 04:21 AM

The Scoop -- Joseph Cheong part 1
 
2010 WSOP Main Event third place finisher Joseph Cheong stops by the set of 'The Scoop' to discuss a gigantic key pot between him and Filippo Candio at the final few tables, his preparation for the November Nine and more.

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Carl Culture 04-23-2011 04:21 AM

Daily Pic # 1142, Shat wins Award
 
http://www.treksinscifi.com/trekdail...Award_Shat.jpg

Last night (4/20/2011)SUCKINGHOBBITDICKSStar Trek’s William Shatner added another award to his bookcase to sit alongside his Emmys and lifetime achievement awards. This time Bill was being honored at the Revolver Golden Gods Awards as an “Honorary Headbanger.” SUCKINGHOBBITDICKSLearn more about it all HERE.



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Carl Culture 04-23-2011 09:09 AM

Aimee Fitzgerald
 
http://www.aadstatic.com/uploads/aim...ld_4423342.jpg

About Aimee:

Aimee Fitzgerald is an Australian artist currently living in Canberra. Following some inexplicable urge, she saved and worked and begged to get her first camera in 2003 (when she was thirteen), and has remained firmly attached to photographic media for seven years since. Initially self-taught, she began studying photography at the Australian National University in 2008.

Working in photographic media, her art explores a range of themes, alternating between portraiture and landscape photography. In portraiture, she explores the language of our visual constructions of various hsitorical forms of portraiture, and the way in which they often sublimate personal identities. She does this through heavily manipulated and historically-stylised self-portraits in which she is not herself. In landscape photography, she explores places with which she feels an affinity, using traditional photographic media to recreate her own subjective experience of the place. In both digital and traditional photographic media, she makes a point of stretching the traditional idea of what is “photographic”.


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NASA 04-23-2011 09:09 AM

Shadows at the Lunar South Pole
 
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/calendar/S_110423.jpg What is it?




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Big Gay Al 04-23-2011 09:09 AM

Koki-the-Labrador-Retriever
 
http://cdn-www.dailypuppy.com/dog-im...04-23_w450.jpg
Koki is a sweet, adorable, little puppy who is full of energy. She has the most unique black spot under her ear. She loves to eat, sleep, bite things, and play with Maggie. Koki loves to fall asleep on the bed at night. She loves to get up to mischief. And we love her to bits.



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Kel Mitchell 04-23-2011 09:09 AM

Anti-Abortion Movement Targets Black Women In Latest Efforts
 
Filed under: Around the Web


From The Huffington Post: On March 29, Texas-based anti-abortion group Life Always launched a billboard campaign on the South Side of Chicago that features a picture of President Obama's face alongside the words, "Every 21 minutes, our next possible leader is aborted." Less than a week after the 30 billboards went up, community members covered most of them with fabric banners that featured angry messages written in red paint.





"There is no place for those billboards in the discourse," Hilary Shelton, director of the NAACP's Washington bureau, told HuffPost. "They were offensive because they focused on African American women and their wombs being somehow dangerous, and they raised major concerns in our community. The really underhanded attack on the president was also seen as being unfounded and unfair."


Rev. Derek McCoy, the public face of the Life Always billboard campaign, has not been deterred by the outcry. He said Life Always is planning on expanding its black-targeted anti-abortion campaign into new cities, including Atlanta, Los Angeles and Houston. He is confused by the African American community's outrage.

"I know I've punched my African American card, so to speak, so when folks tell me, 'Hey, this is a racist plot,' I think that's absolutely ludicrous," said McCoy, an outspoken Maryland pastor who sits on the board of directors at Life Always. "I'm not sold out to any particular party in terms of Democrat or Republican -- matter of fact, I'm Independent. But if I take a step back and look at this issue objectively and say, where are the majority of their abortion clinics? They're in urban and African American communities, hands down."

Read more at The Huffington Post




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Big Gay Al 04-23-2011 09:09 AM

Empress Sisi - April 23, 2011
 
http://goodmorningkitten.com/media/k...kitten1209.jpg
Empress Sisi
empressaix says: I just got Sisi three days ago. She is just two months old. A doll-face Persian kitten and her eyes are blue. Very sweet, and loves to sleep and playful... :)
Courtesy of: empressaix
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Georgie Thompson 04-23-2011 02:06 PM

Man Utd 1 Everton 0
 
Live pictures from the clash at Old Trafford as United look to extend their lead at the top.

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NASA 04-23-2011 02:06 PM

Thickness Map of Buried Carbon-Dioxide Deposit
 
A newly found, buried deposit of frozen carbon dioxide -- dry ice -- near the south pole of Mars contains about 30 times more carbon dioxide than previously estimated to be frozen near the pole. This map color-codes thickness estimates of the deposit derived and extrapolated from observations by the Shallow Subsurface Radar (SHARAD) instrument on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The orbiter does not pass directly over the pole, and the thickness estimates for that area (with smoother transitions from color to color) are extrapolations.Red corresponds to about 600 meters or yards thick; yellow to about 400; dark blue to less than 100, tapering to zero. The scale bar at lower right is 100 kilometers (62 miles). The background map, in muted colors, represents different geological materials near the south pole.The estimated total volume of this buried carbon-dioxide deposit is 9,500 to 12,500 cubic kilometers (2,300 to 3,000 cubic miles).Known variations in the tilt of Mars' rotation axis can significantly reduce or increase the proportion of the planet's carbon dioxide that is sequestered into this newly discovered deposit, climate models indicate. The Martian atmosphere is about 95 percent carbon dioxide, and this deposit currently holds up to about 80 percent as much carbon dioxide as the atmosphere does. Several-fold swings in the total mass of the Martian atmosphere can result from growing and shrinking of dry ice deposits on time scales of 100,000 years or less, the models indicate.SHARAD was provided by the Italian Space Agency. Its operations are led by Sapienza University of Rome, and its data are analyzed by a joint U.S.-Italian science team. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for the NASA Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, built the spacecraft.

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