dang yall the 2020 presidential debates could be crazy

[blake]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VaughnP

+700. That's honestly not a bad bet. Trump is roughly +160 which is definitely +EV. Even with the biased polls, his combined approval rating is around 42%. This is still with the effects of the shutdown. Trump should be somewhere around -250.

how are you not loading up on trump then?

[blake]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VaughnP

I don't know if he can win the primary, but try to come up with another realistic dem candidate with a better shot at beating Trump. There isn't one. Bernie will probably end up winning the primary but would likely fare the worst in the general election of any candidate.

the democrats have gone full socialist, but i think you're projecting the way you personally think about trump on the rest of the country.

there's a reason trump is an underdog to win re-election and it's not biased polling. it's reasonable to believe trump will not be able to expand his base beyond what he did in 2016. it's because he acts like he's actually retarded.

it's also reasonable to think that the democrats turn out for anyone not named hillary in 2020.

those two factors alone make trump extremely vulnerable

[Hillbilly Jim]

considering over half america likes medicare for all, taxing the rich etc. sounds like the whole country is shifting left they are just too stupid to know it

[VaughnP]

Quote:

Originally Posted by blake

the democrats have gone full socialist, but i think you're projecting the way you personally think about trump on the rest of the country.

there's a reason trump is an underdog to win re-election and it's not biased polling. it's reasonable to believe trump will not be able to expand his base beyond what he did in 2016. it's because he acts like he's actually retarded.

it's also reasonable to think that the democrats turn out for anyone not named hillary in 2020.

those two factors alone make trump extremely vulnerable

I'm not using my opinions or feelings for anything here. There are various studies that show just 40% makes an incumbent the favorite, mid 40s a virtual lock. I wasn't pulling those numbers out of my ass.

You are actually applying your own biases and wishful thinking. Trump's rating will likely improve once the Mueller thing is over and if the economy holds steady.

Quote:

Research from Young and Chris Jackson, a vice president at the polling outfit, has shown that an approval rating of 40 percent would make Trump the narrow favorite for re-election. The two studied more than 500 elections to reach that conclusion. In 2015, Young's model predicted a Republican victory in the 2016 presidential race despite polling that gave Democrat Hillary Clinton the edge.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/trum...-election.html


Google this and you'll find other election analysts that have came to the same mathematical conclusion.

I remember seeing that 42% in a combined poll of polls or so makes him at least a 70% favorite by this formula, while at the time the more accurate polls had him even higher.

[anatine]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VaughnP

I'm not using my opinions or feelings for anything here. There are various studies that show just 40% makes an incumbent the favorite, mid 40s a virtual lock. I wasn't pulling those numbers out of my ass.

You are actually applying your own biases and wishful thinking. Trump's rating will likely improve once the Mueller thing is over and if the economy holds steady.



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/trum...-election.html


Google this and you'll find other election analysts that have came to the same mathematical conclusion.

I remember seeing that 42% in a combined poll of polls or so makes him at least a 70% favorite by this formula, while at the time the more accurate polls had him even higher.

there are some legit fascinating stats here but one thing jumped out at me; using 500 similar elections as a data pool seems tricky because there werent 500 elections where russian troll farms got a sundowning reality tv star elected.

[VaughnP]

California and the North East are severely out of touch with the rest of America. Don't be surprised if even more white people turn out for Trump in 2020 if he is the candidate. From what I can tell, despite what CNN and co are telling you, his base is even more fed up. It will be hard to embolden the youth and the black vote anymore than the insanity of 2016 against him. The early and mid 20s crowd that drove all of that energy is getting over it more and more with each passing day, and the average middle aged moderate agrees more that the media etc. actually is more biased than we all even thought. If the Mueller thing turns out to be as big of a letdown as it appears to be for his critics and opponents, that's all the Republicans need to crush 2020.

[anatine]

point well taken.

[VaughnP]

That post wasn't meant to be a response to yours. I actually didn't see it until afterwards.

[VaughnP]

I'm just saying that Blake has Nita casting Santeria spells against Trump with his derangement syndrome at this point.

[VaughnP]

I don't see how Beto's literally psycho/sociopathic writings uncovered don't death blow his chances. Everything about him becomes that much more creepy and fake when you understand he was writing children murder stories and weird as fuck poems in his high school years.